The task of securing 17th place is Forest’s Cup Final this season. Luton drew the game against Everton last night, putting The Hatters within sniffing distance of us, with goal difference being the deciding factor.
Forest were expected to lose the big game against Manchester City last weekend but securing 17th place to an inferior team could be a bigger task than taking on one of the country’s top sides.
With an unorthodox back five, Forest managed to achieve a first-half XG that is unfamiliar to the current European Champions, and it was a refreshing change to see Forest actually compete with, arguably, one of the best sides in the world.
Rather than being defeatist and subservient to gifted midfielders who just play a possession game, passing around us like a bunch of school bullies who won’t let the unpopular kids have his ball back, Forest showed a belief that securing 17th place is within reach, and achievable, even prior to the Burnley game.
Impressive XG accounts for nothing.
Forest were quite outstanding on Sunday against the Etihad superstars and, had the game remained level at half-time, it would’ve been interesting to see the outcome, especially had Wood put one of his chances away.
An all-too-familiar set-piece allowed an opening for the opposition and it was a great header. If Murillo does have a weakness in his game it’s his jumping, and his poor challenge from the delivery meant that the impressive XG accounts for nothing if you don’t score. That’s why XG is meaningless when you have defensive frailties and a lack of clinical finishing.
Manchester City are accused of more financial breaches than Goldman Sachs.
It was a strange game for my pre-conceptions. I harboured doubts over Forest’s capabilities and the competence of the matchday officials. Surprisingly, I didn’t have much criticism for Forest or the referee. The ref did quite well – I don’t recall a yellow card or a questionable VAR decision going against us.
However, the biggest shock was when Manchester City fans started to chant “Cheats” to the Forest fans. I found this derogatory statement rather short-sighted as City currently stands accused of more financial breaches than Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
PSR aside, the biggest debate will come with regards to the formation against Sheffield United. When I first saw the line-up against Man City, I couldn’t help thinking that a back-five was all too familiar to them and perhaps a risky strategy. Most teams go defensive against the Etihad boys and they have learned to adapt to five at the back and they tend to punish a negative approach for fun.
Only Real Madrid and a few others have dared to low-block Man City and emerged triumphant.
However, Forest showed great first-half energy and took the game to them. Aina was excellent on Sunday and he made Kyle Walker look like a single mother with childcare issues on her shoulders, not an England regular who is rarely made to look average.
Despite the proof that Forest can attack with a back five, I suspect that Nuno will resort to a more familiar four at the back in an attempt to open Sheffield United up with a blade of cutting passers and swift transitions along the flanks.
Regardless of the availability today, I still think Forest’s best chance of securing 17th place will be to play as they did against Fulham, with an attacking front three.
The best way of securing 17th place.
Forest could go behind against Sheffield United but as soon as that first goal goes in for Forest, their heads will drop and they will surely think that they are as useless as a 21st-century Tory.
The players will have to be 100% and, even without Neco and Murillo, we can still beat them. If Forest can’t beat bottom-of-the-league Sheffield United to secure 17th place, then perhaps their fate is sealed.
Sheffield United surely won’t roll over like wounded animals. They will still have a fight in them and they will have a point to prove against their fierce rivals. Knowing that, regardless of the result, securing 17th place for them is impossible and the pressure won’t be weighing as heavily on their minds. Therefore, it could be that The Blades will be more relaxed whilst Forest remain desperate and frustrated if the game doesn’t go to plan after an hour.
Many Sheffield United fans have taken a different view of the contest by saying that it wouldn’t do The Blades any favours if a big club like Nottingham Forest were to compete with them in The Championship next season.
It has since been confirmed by Nuno that Murillo and Boly are fit but this has since become yesterday’s news as Mark Clattenburg quit his advisory role yesterday.
Clattenburg was appointed in an advisory capacity, this February, amid a host of s#!*refereeing decisions which added pressure to the squad and exasperated Forest’s already woeful season.
Despite the delay in the points appeal process and recent resignations at the club, the best way for Forest to approach the game would be to hit them with speed. Sheffield United won’t be able to cope with the pace of Hudson-Odoi, Ola Aina and Elanga, and we all know that a confident Chris Wood will welcome the chance to redeem the missed chances against Man City.
May the 4th be with Forest
It might take more than a Jedi mind trick to foul the already relegated side on this 4th day of May, and it will certainly determine where Forest’s place is in the universe of elite sports. We expect a win – we suspect a win – but, if it’s not to be, then the writing may have been on the walls of the Trent all season and, despite the quality signings, we’ve just been naïve to assume that Forest are anything more than a mediocre Championship side.
Hopefully, Nuno can help change opinions of our club and get a valuable win at a toxic Bramall Lane where both sets of fans will vehemently express their loyalties.
To be an established Premiership club, Forest will need to win today – and probably again – to stay in the Premiership for a few more seasons.
Our prediction
Although securing 17th place will not be accomplished this afternoon, regardless of the result, we anticipate an exciting game with both sides conceding goals. We predict that the score will be 3-2 to Forest. COYR!
